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January 2017 Jobs Report

The US jobs report for January was "generally encouraging," says Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, with the 227,000 nonfarm payroll gain more than enough to absorb those joining the labor force due to population growth. But the unemployment rate ticked up and wages were nearly flat from the prior month, signaling that pressure on labor resources remains moderate after one of the longest economic recoveries since World War II.That muddies the picture slightly for the Fed, Hatzius says, and he and his colleagues now see only a 15% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates when the committee next meets in March. Goldman Sachs Research maintains its prediction for three rate increases in 2017, with June, September and December now considered the most likely "live" meetings.