Will China Grow Old Before Getting Rich?

Looming demographic constraints raise concerns over China’s future growth. The rapid pace of aging is exacerbated by the unusually fast drop in the fertility rate resulting from the one-child policy. We argue that two important factors will offset the slowdown in raw labor growth: 1) improvement in labor quality, and 2) the release of surplus labor from the agricultural sector.

>> Will China Grow Old Before Getting Rich? February 2006 [PDF, 432 KB]